A decade after the UK embarked on a rushed referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unity has masked the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates encompass national emblems, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified points, he commented. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
